Road to the NBA Finals
We are nearing the end of one of the most uncertain NBA season so far.
With COVID protocols, a shortened regular season, constantly shape shifting MVP race, two very close conferences and a new post-season tournament it has brewed up a pot for a very uncertain postseason as well.
Many teams have been suffering from health issues, either due to COVID protocols or the rigors of the condensed schedule, which takes a huge toll on a players health if you are not in top shape. With key players in and out of the roster it has affected the seeding of these teams and even the chances of making the playoffs.
Eastern Conference:
I don’t remember the last time the East was this competitive and this close. Although the top 3 teams :- 76ers, Nets and Bucks have separated themselves from the others as far as seeding is concerned but the playoff outlook looks as close as ever.
From the 4th seed onwards the teams are closely packed and the seeding would be very interesting to watch out for. This again has been due to health concerns the teams are facing, who would have imagined last year’s Eastern Conference Finalists - Celtics and Heat holding the 7th and 8th seed, but ever since all their key players are back they have picked up their game and are within the top 6 seed and hoping to avoid the Play-in tournament.
We saw teams who would likely participate in the play-in tournament be very active in the trade market for a shot to get into the playoffs(especially Bulls, Knicks and Hawks). Having said that I don’t see any of the teams making an upset to the top 3 seeds, even last year’s conference finalists Celtics and Heat, while they have good rosters but are performing below last season’s levels and they are unmatched in talent when it comes to Nets, Bucks and 76ers as currently placed.
The Nets with their big 3 in KD, Harden, Kyrie and their solid bench are the clear favourites, but with Kyrie being unreliable KD’s injury woes and all 3 being ball dominant, they have just played 7 games together which is a concern, we all saw what happened to the Clippers last season when a team lacks chemistry. The last time a team that won a chip with its stars playing less than 10 games together was the 2000 Lakers of Kobe and Shaq.
On the other hand the 76ers led by Joel Embid have been quite a revelation this season, he along with Jokic are the only frontrunners for MVP in my opinion. Philly have won 80% of all their home games this season which is why getting the 1st seed for them would be crucial if they go to 7 games in the ECF against the Nets or Bucks which is highly likely.
Nets’ major concern has been their interior defense, to stop the likes of Embid, Simmons or Giannis they need more size and reliability at the 5. The playoffs is a whole different ballgame as compared to the regular season, physically and mentally. Now I would still pick the Nets to win over the 76ers or Bucks to get out of the East just because the have 3 of the best scorers in the league that will go get you a bucket but then again there is just one ball and you have to play defense, which the 76ers and Bucks are pretty good at. Also. KD(at GS) and Kyrie have not exactly been the model teammates when it comes to sharing the spotlight with other stars, especially Kyrie (at Cleveland and Boston) at avoiding unnecessary drama which doesn’t exactly bode well for the stress of the playoffs.
Western Conference:
The West has always been loaded with talent, while some of the big name players have gone to the East, the West is still as competitive as it always is.
The Jazz and the Suns look like they have secured the top 2 seeds with the Suns just one game behind the Jazz. The Jazz have improved significantly since last year after the first round exit to the Nuggets which went to 7 games. The team’s lack of chemistry showed in the playoffs while being totally dependent on Donovan Mitchell, while they have addressed the chemistry concerns this year. The Jazz, led by Mitchell & Co with Jordan Clarkson who will most likely be the 6th man of the year have been attempting and scoring a record number of threes this season, even more than what James Harden led Rockets used to, the only concern during the playoffs is when the shot is not falling for any of them is Rudy Gobert’s interior scoring enough to plough through?
The Suns on the other hand have been the most improved team on the back of Chris Paul’s leadership, this just show how great leader he is and still one of the best PGs in this league. Even with the 2nd seed I don’t see the duo of Booker and Paul making a lot of noise in the playoffs.
Then come the Clippers and the Nuggets, owing to Jamal Murray’s devastating ACL injury the Nuggets are majorly short-handed right now, the addition of Aaron Gordon was a big plus and they were on their way to maybe a fringe contender and team to look out for on the back of Jokic’s arguable MVP season, but I don’t see them making out of the second round as currently constructed.
The Clippers on the other-hand have addressed a lot of their problems since blowing up in the 2nd round of the playoffs last season, PG and Kawhi have played more minutes together, they have added the likes of Ibaka, Rondo, Cousins and other personnel changes like firing Doc Rivers(76ers) and hiring Ty Lue which gives them much needed playoff experience. I could see them make it to the Conference Finals and challenging the Lakers this time around.
The Lakers have slipped to the 5th spot since LeBron and AD have been out with injuries, but when they return which will be soon, they hope of avoiding the play-in tournament and no-one apart from the Clippers and the Jazz can challenge them in the West for the Western Conference title. Meanwhile the Lakers have added Drummond and McLemore in the buyout market which gives their bench some more firepower, when healthy and firing on all cylinders, Lakers will be the favourites to come out of the West.
They are followed by the Blazers, Mavericks, Grizzlies and the Warriors. The Blazers have had major injury concerns as always but are still hanging in there because of Damian Lillard, I don’t see them making out of the second round. As far as the Mavericks go they have taken a step down from last season even though Luka was in the MVP conversation at the beginning of the season, they need some more pieces to be a regular playoff contender. As it stands right now the Mavericks, Grizzlies, Warriors and the Spurs will make the play-in tournament. I don’t see any of them getting out of the first round
The Finals : Nets vs Lakers
This will be the mostly likely matchup for the finals also a very close one if both the teams are healthy, both the teams have enough talent to take on the other, the Nets have so many options on the offense that it won’t matter if they don’t play defense, they can just willingly outscore any team out there, having said that I would still give the edge to the Lakers, because there are still many question marks with Brooklyn from defense to chemistry to health also the Lakers are the defending champions and still the team to beat.
No team in this century has won a championship with a defense as bad as Brooklyn’s, which ranks 25th in the league. But there’s a first time for everything, and this group has the look of a mold-breaking offense-only title-winner.
